随着中国经济的迅速发展,市场石料需求急增.西部某县有丰富的优质石料,当地政府决定有序开发本县石料资源.因建立石料厂会破坏生态,该县决定石料开发走“开发治理结合,人类生态友好”的路线.当地政府请国家环保机构每年对该县与石料开发相关的生态(以下简称生态)进行评估.若生态开始变差,则下一年石料厂将停产(本问题中,时间以整数年为单位),生态友好后复产.该县在建石料厂之初投入巨资进行与之有关的生态建设,考虑到可持续发展,这种生态投入(以下简称生态投入)将逐年减少
![](https://math.21cnjy.com/MathMLToImage?mml=%3Cmath+xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F1998%2FMath%2FMathML%22%3E%3Cmrow%3E%3Cmo%3E%28%3C%2Fmo%3E%3Cmrow%3E%3Cmn%3E4%3C%2Fmn%3E%3Cmn%3El%3C%2Fmn%3E%3Cmn%3En%3C%2Fmn%3E%3Cmi%3Ea%3C%2Fmi%3E%3Cmo%3E%E2%88%92%3C%2Fmo%3E%3Cmsup%3E%3Cmrow%3E%3Cmi%3Ea%3C%2Fmi%3E%3C%2Fmrow%3E%3Cmrow%3E%3Cmn%3E2%3C%2Fmn%3E%3C%2Fmrow%3E%3C%2Fmsup%3E%3Cmo%3E%E2%88%92%3C%2Fmo%3E%3Cmn%3E2%3C%2Fmn%3E%3Cmi%3Ea%3C%2Fmi%3E%3Cmo%3E%2B%3C%2Fmo%3E%3Cmn%3E1%3C%2Fmn%3E%3Cmn%3E0%3C%2Fmn%3E%3C%2Fmrow%3E%3Cmo%3E%29%3C%2Fmo%3E%3C%2Fmrow%3E%3C%2Fmath%3E)
(a是常数,
![](https://math.21cnjy.com/MathMLToImage?mml=%3Cmath+xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F1998%2FMath%2FMathML%22%3E%3Cmn%3E0%3C%2Fmn%3E%3Cmo%3E%26lt%3B%3C%2Fmo%3E%3Cmi%3Ea%3C%2Fmi%3E%3Cmo%3E%26lt%3B%3C%2Fmo%3E%3Cmtext%3Ee%3C%2Fmtext%3E%3C%2Fmath%3E)
)亿元.该县从2021年起,若某年生态友好,则下一年生态变差的概率是
![](https://math.21cnjy.com/MathMLToImage?mml=%3Cmath+xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F1998%2FMath%2FMathML%22%3E%3Cmfrac%3E%3Cmrow%3E%3Cmn%3E1%3C%2Fmn%3E%3C%2Fmrow%3E%3Cmrow%3E%3Cmn%3E8%3C%2Fmn%3E%3C%2Fmrow%3E%3C%2Fmfrac%3E%3C%2Fmath%3E)
;若某年生态变差,则下一年生态友好的概率为
![](https://math.21cnjy.com/MathMLToImage?mml=%3Cmath+xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F1998%2FMath%2FMathML%22%3E%3Cmfrac%3E%3Cmrow%3E%3Cmn%3E5%3C%2Fmn%3E%3C%2Fmrow%3E%3Cmrow%3E%3Cmn%3E8%3C%2Fmn%3E%3C%2Fmrow%3E%3C%2Fmfrac%3E%3C%2Fmath%3E)
. 模型显示,生态变差的概率不大于0.16683时,该县生态将不再变差,生态投入结束.