More than 90 percent of global trade today is carried out through ships — about 53,000 business ships trading internationally. That number seems to increase quickly. A 2019 study, led by researchers at McGill University in Canada, has predicted (预测) an increase in ocean traffic of anything between 240 and 1209 percent by 2050. In preparation for this increase, scientists and engineers around the world are dealing with the difficult question of how to navigate (航行) more safely.
On the west coast of the US, one such group has a single target-whales. The region is home to not only busy international ports but also the rich feeding grounds of blue, humpback and fin whales. As a result of crossovers, ship strikes are thought to be one of the leading causes of death for whale populations.
Dr Briana Abrahms, a research ecologist at NOAA Fisheries' Southwest Fisheries Science Center, is developing an app that will allow managers and ship members to be alarmed to the possible location of blue whales. It is based on the group's new model which predicts whale movements based on the oceanographic conditions. "Ocean conditions can change on a daily basis," Abrahms explains. "We know what conditions the whales like, so every single day we can look at where those conditions are and predict where the whales will go."
Of course
knowing where the whales are is hardly effective if captains ignore the information. Abrahms admits that voluntary slow-down plans for large ships on the east coast of the US (slower ships being less likely to kill whales) have seen low levels of obedience (遵守). Her hope is that more accurate data will encourage owners and managers to respond. "Part of the reason we think for the low obedience is that there isn't much confidence among the shipping industry. If you say 'slow down between July and November', the shipping industry doesn't believe that there is actually a whale there. By making it more accurate in predicting whales, we're hoping our app will help," Abrahms said.
